Who Will Win Marvel's Civil War?

I don't read much Marvel. When it comes to Civil War, I only get the main series. (Although I really wanted the one with Howard the Duck. My LCS only bought a few and they sold out that Wednesday. Ah, well.) So, all my opinions here are based on what I've read in those five issues, the stuff often found at Newsarama, and my view, ignorant though it may be, of the Marvel universe. So, here I go:

Let's face it, Captain America's side will win.

Why?

Let's start with the obvious:

He's Captain Fucking America.

He's Marvel's representation of the American ideal. He represents, or at least tries to represent, all that is good about the USA. He fights for freedom and justice. He supports honesty and strong morals. He believes in the ideals on which America is based. And he probably bakes a spectacular apple pie. In other words, Captain America is what we (or at least I) want the USA to stand for in the world.

If Captain America's team loses, then it'll be like Marvel telling us that the ideals of America have failed, too. Sure, he'll probably keep trying to fight, but Captain America a fugitive from the country that made him that he took his name from, and a long term terrorist against that country just can't work.

If his team loses, what are the story possibilities for all the characters who joined him? They all become outsiders hounded by the law? They all move to France to sip wine with the Thing and gripe about how America was better once upon a time? They all go underground and their books get cancelled? They all get arrested and "rehabilitated" by Iron Man? They move to Latveria and join Dr. Doom in his constant quest for revenge against that fool, Richards?

It seems to me that if Marvel has the pro-registration side win, half of their heroes will become criminals and that will make for a boring line of comics.

When Captain America wins, though, his group can go back to being superheroes sort of like before, and Iron Man's side can continue being government lackeys, or whatever you want to call them.

Just because, after Civil War ends, the government won't be drafting all the superhumans, doesn't mean that they'll close down the programs they created. Why would they? They already have a, probably, large number of people registered and trained, why would they want to let them out just because Congress decided to repeal the Superhuman Registration Act? That would be like dismantling the armed services just because there's no draft, stupid.

In the newest Wizard, Dan Slott talked about something called The Initiative and suggested that this is where the registered heroes, who wanted to stick with the government, will be. Once the new Thunderbolts break out of their collars, the government's going to need someone to track down all the murdering psychopaths they allowed Iron Man and Mr. Fantastic to use.

Having the anti-registration side win won't limit story possibilities like having the pro-registration side win.

If the anti side wins traditional superhero with secret identities stories can be told. Stories about the government training a next generation of super powered people can be told. There can be a book about a government task force of superhumans who police the activities of those who aren't registered. And the few mutants can die in peace.